Election Predictathon

So, what does this mean for the Election? My view: nothing. People have already made up their minds.

The bookies are backing Bush though. Yesterday, Ladbrokes bookmakers in the UK shortened the odds on a Bush win from 4/6 to 8/13, as the bin Laden video prompted a rush of money on the Republicans. In Britain, the feeling is that this tape helps Bush.

Anyway, I’m not fishing for political argument here. Let’s wait ’til Wednesday. But let’s have a friendly bet of our own: who will win, and by how many electoral votes? (The person who predicts the closest wins…..Headlife bragging rights).

My prediction: Kerry by 19.

P.S. It might take Jon Stewart to calm us down re: the media. Watch his Crossfire appearance here. Funny as hell!

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12 thoughts on “Election Predictathon

  1. I think in the end it’ll come down to Ohio, and on current figures, I therefore (hate to) predict Bush by 24, but I think Kerry will get the popular vote. I can also see John C’s senario.

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  2. John C., that’s very cynical. Is it your view that what happened in 2000 was incorrect? (I mean from a procedural point of view.) Remember, Gore didn’t want the whole state of Florida recounted (so much for wanting <>every vote<> to count); he just wanted the counties he suspected might favor him to be recounted. And remember that it was <>Liebermann<> who said that to resolve this they would do what the American people do: take their opponents to court.

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  3. John F– why does John C’s idea have to be cynical? He’s not the first to suggest that there will be voting issues, and if that turns to legal action which makes it to the SC, is it such a stretch to see a 5-4 vote? Yes, John C could be making a cynical remark. Or it could be his prediction!

    Anyhow, I worked it out to 275-263 (+12) for Kerry. But it’s clear that there are just too many possibilities. At this link:

    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

    You can actually work out the map as you like to see how different states swinging different ways changes the totals.

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  4. John F – don’t you think you’re freaking out a little too much over a one line statement that was his prediction?? Did he say it was not carried out correctly in 2000? NO. Did he even mention the 2000 vote? NO. If making any point (and John C can correct me if I’m way off base) he’s saying that if the same controversy happens as before, Bush will win as there are more Republican Supreme Court Judges! You sound amazingly defensive over nothing and didn’t even give your predictions, which is the point of this post!

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  5. Um, yes. I am being cynical. Lancer is correct about both sides already lining up for voting disputes. And I couldn’t be bothered to do real math. An actual prediction to come later today.
    ps. I know it was a cheap shot, but how could I resist?

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  6. My actual guess in Bush by 18, giving him Ohio, the South and the non-coastal west (New Mexico excluded).

    Also, I appreciate Becky sticking up for me, although my earlier prediction was somewhat obnoxious. I can say that I could see it going down to a Supreme Court decision which would inevitably split the way I predicted (unless it doesn’t). In other words, my first post was less of a prediction and more of a worst-possible outcome (which is where my predictions tend to go anyway).

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  7. I used the same poll tracker again today with up to date polls, and it came out to either a tie (if Bush wins Hawaii) and therefore a Bush win as the house gets it, or a win for Kerry by 8.

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  8. I could be wrong with the math, but I believe Becky won. Bush +36 was the final score and Becky guessed Bush +24. So,
    All hail Becky, the great Nostradame of Headlife!

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